U.S. Job Gains for Next Decade Projected to Much Slower Than After 2008 Crisis

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsprojects employment to grow 0.4% a year from 2019 to 2029, much slower than the 1.3% expansion rate following the Great Recession.

The number of jobs will increase by 6 million over the next 10 years to 168.8 million, Tuesday’s report showed. The BLS projects economic growth may slow to a 1.8% annual rate from 2.3% in the previous decade. Productivity, meanwhile, is forecast to improve.

The BLS cautioned that the employment projections are a long-term forecast intended to capture structural change in the economy, not cyclical fluctuations, and don’t include the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.

By 2029, all baby-boomers will be older than 65 and their retirements will contribute to a decline in the labor participation rate, the report showed, although employees over the age of 55 will make up a larger share of the workforce.

Many occupations are projected to see significant growth in the near future with some of the largest gains expected in the personal-care and home-health aide fields — jobs that pay a median wage of around $25,200, the report said. The biggest percentage demand will be for wind-turbine service technicians.

The manufacturing sector is expected to lose 444,800 jobs between 2019 and 2029. Factors contributing to the loss of these jobs include the adoption of new productivity-enhancing technologies, such as robotics and international competition, according to the report.

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