Turkey talks: Is Putin dangling ceasefire in bid to buy time to regroup his troops?
Ukraine: Turkey hopeful at arranging a ceasefire during talks
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Peace talks have resumed between Ukraine and Russia today, with negotiations being held in Istanbul, Turkey. The talks are the first to be held in three weeks but hopes of a huge breakthrough are unlikely to be realised as Moscow could be plotting an alternative plan in Ukraine.
Ukrainian negotiators are hoping to secure a ceasefire, but this seems extremely unlikely.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Ukrainian television: “The minimum programme will be humanitarian questions, and the maximum programme is reaching an agreement on a ceasefire.”
Turkish President Erdogan, who agreed to host the talks after a conversation with President Putin last week, has told the Ukrainian and Russian delegations that they bear the “historic responsibility” to stop the war.
He said: “We believe that there will be no losers in a just peace. Prolonging the conflict is not in anyone’s interest.”
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Is there likely to be a breakthrough?
Over the weekend, the Ukrainian President admitted he was willing to discuss neutrality and offer security guarantees to Moscow to secure peace “without delay”.
President Zelensky’s willingness to drop Ukraine’s plans to join NATO will be well received by Russia, given that the war is based partly on stopping the security alliance’s eastward expansion.
While it certainly seems a step in a more positive direction, Marc Weller, former UN mediation expert, said it didn’t guarantee any agreement from Russia.
He said: “The offer is hedged. Instead of NATO membership, Ukraine is demanding more effective security guarantees than those offered in the ill-faded Budapest Memorandum of 1994. Russia had pledged never to use force against Ukraine in that document.
“Also, the Kremlin justified its war in part with reference to the supposed encirclement of Russia by NATO.
“In removing the Nato issue from the equation, Ukraine is also removing one of the purported grounds for war, making it more difficult to resist the calls for a ceasefire.
“And President Zelensky’s first priority must be to end the violence, given the immense suffering of the population.”
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Is Putin plotting something?
However, senior US State Department official said Russian President Putin did not appear ready to make compromises to end the war.
Politico has claimed there are suspicions mounting among western officials that he actually has an ulterior motive for the talks.
The Russian leader may be using talks to dangle the prospect of a ceasefire, while using the time to regroup his troops before mounting another offensive.
He could also be using it to avoid the prospect of further sanctions.
Russia has sustained heavy losses so far in the month-long war, and it believed President Putin thought taking Kyiv would be much simpler and quicker.
The Ukrainian army has said 17,200 Russian “occupiers” have been killed so far in the conflict.
The army also claimed Russia has lost 597 tanks, 1,710 armoured vehicles, 127 jets, 129 helicopters and seven ships – but neither of these claims have been independently verified.
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