‘Won’t happen at all!’ Polling expert destroys Sturgeon Indyref2 plot in election forecast

Nicola Sturgeon rattled over Scottish independence support

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The SNP are pushing to hold a vote on splitting from the rest of the UK before the end of 2023 – nine years after Scotland voted “No” in the first referendum by a margin of 55 percent to 45 percent. Despite Boris Johnson rejecting calls for Indyref2 on several occasions, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has continued to claim there is a mandate to hold another independence vote. During the Scottish elections a year ago, the SNP failed to win an outright majority in Scotland, inflicting damage on hopes of gaining enough support in Holyrood to push for another referendum.

But a coalition with the independence-supporting Greens has now helped achieve that, providing a boost for Ms Sturgeon and her Scottish independence plans.

Ms Sturgeon hopes momentum from the Scottish local elections will assist her push for Indyref2 to take place within the next 18 months.

But polling expert Sir John Curtice warned that, while the SNP could use local successes to claim the country is moving towards independence, this is not the case at all.

He told Express.co.uk: “SNP wins in the Scottish local elections would help to maintain morale for independence.

“The SNP’s advantage is that they are defending in what in the end was a very disappointing result in 2017 where they only got 33 percent of the vote, which was no more than they got in 2012.

“Given everything that happened in between, there was an expectation they would do better than that.

“This time around, they will be sharing the Nationalist vote with the Greens and there is uncertainty around how well the Greens will do.

“But I would guess the SNP should make some advances and as a result they will claim this is evidence that Scotland is moving towards independence.

“However, it probably won’t demonstrate that at all.

“You might remember, the last local elections were only a few weeks before the SNP fell down to 37 percent of the vote in the 2017 general election.”

The comments come with the latest Savanta ComRes poll for The Scotsman newspaper showing the SNP remaining static on 46 percent if a Holyrood constituency vote were held tomorrow.

The poll of 1,010 Scottish adults from April 26-May 3 showed in the list vote, possibly more reflective of how the electorate will vote at the local elections, the SNP’s lead had dropped further, down a further three points since March to 31 percent.

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The SNP’s list vote proportion had been as high as 38 percent in January, representing a seven-point slide since the start of the year.

On Scottish independence, a majority of voters expressed doubts over whether the SNP’s planned timetable for a referendum to be held in 2023 would actually happen.

In total, more than half (53 percent) said it is “unlikely” a referendum will be held by the end of next year, while less than two in five (39 percent) said it is “likely”.

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