Historical Crossover Suggests Ethereum (ETH) Top Is In
On-chain data shows the Ethereum taker buy/sell ratio has formed a crossover recently that has historically signaled tops in the asset’s price.
Ethereum Taker Buy/Sell Ratio 280-Day and 476-Day MAs Have Crossed Recently
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the last time this crossover formed was back in May 2021, when ETH observed the bull rally top formation. The relevant indicator here is the “Ethereum taker buy sell ratio,” which measures the ratio between the taker buy volume and the taker sell volume.
When the value of this metric is lower than 1, it means the short or the taker sell volume is currently higher than the long or the taker buy volume in the market. This kind of trend is a sign that there are more sellers willing to sell at a lower price in the market right now, implying that the selling pressure is dominant.
On the other hand, when the indicator has a value higher than 1, it suggests a bullish sentiment is shared by the majority as the long volume is greater than the sell volume.
In the context of the current discussion, the actual metrics of interest are the 280-day and 476-day moving averages (MA) of the Ethereum taker buy/sell ratio.
Here is a chart that shows the trend in these MAs of the indicator over the last few years:
The values of the two metrics recently came together | Source: CryptoQuant
As shown in the above graph, the 280-day MA of the Ethereum taker buy/sell ratio declined below the 476-day MA last month. Interestingly, right as this crossover took place, the asset’s price formed a local top around the $2,100 level.
When the 280-day MA drops below the 476-day MA of this metric, it means that the market sentiment is changing towards a more bearish one, as it suggests a rise in the taker sell volume dominance.
Due to this reason, such a cross has been bearish for the cryptocurrency’s value in the past. From the chart, it’s visible that this type of crossover last formed back in May 2021, when ETH was at the height of the bull run in the first half of 2021. Coinciding with the crossover, the cryptocurrency’s price registered its then-all-time high value.
Based on this, it’s possible that the latest crossover in the Ethereum taker buy/sell ratio MAs could also prove to be bearish for the price.
So far, ETH has only declined since the top formed along with this indicator, so it seems that the crossover effect may already be in action. However, the two MAs are still quite close in value, so it’s possible a reverse cross could also possibly form in the near future.
In 2020, both types of crossovers formed several times in quick succession, until eventually the bullish type of cross won out and lead to the 2021 bull run, which could be the case here.
It now remains to be seen whether the two MAs will continue to diverge in the coming weeks, or if they will converge again and form the reverse type of crossover.
ETH Price
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading around $1,800, down 2% in the last week.
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