Matrixport's Head of Research Explains Why $SOL Has Outperformed in 2023
Markus Thielen, Head of Research at Matrixport, recently shared a comprehensive analysis on how well the Solana blockchain and its native token SOL have done in 2023.
Thielen began by highlighting SOL’s extraordinary price growth in 2023, noting a staggering 480% increase year-to-date.
Initially, he had predicted SOL could double its value, but the cryptocurrency exceeded expectations within just three months. Despite a period of poor trading in late summer, Solana’s prices saw a swift reversal.
Thielen pointed out that the release of SOL tokens previously locked by Alameda Research initially drove prices down. However, as the FTX creditor team progressed in asset recovery, the urgency to sell these tokens diminished.
Thielen also said that a significant trigger for Solana’s performance was the Breakpoint conference at the end of October 2022. He believes this, combined with a misleading headline about FTX creditors potentially recovering 90% of their funds, fueled the rally.
He also pointed out that Solana’s fee revenue doubled from $300,000 to nearly $800,000 weekly, a figure he considers small relative to its $24 billion market cap. Token incentives also saw a significant increase.
As for social media buzz, Thielen noted that the rally ignited Twitter discussions, with many users endorsing SOL and likening it to Ethereum’s role in previous cycles.
Thielen also highlighted a recent decline in core developers and code commits for Solana, suggesting potential headwinds for its future.
The researcher shared the following insights on his other market predictions for 2023:
- US Inflation: Predicted to fall from 7.7% to 3.0%, currently at 3.2%.]
- Nasdaq Performance: Anticipated an aggressive rally, now up by 37%.
- Bitcoin vs. Nasdaq: Expected Bitcoin to outperform Nasdaq, with Bitcoin now up by 126%.
- Grayscale’s GBTC: Forecasted to outperform Bitcoin, currently at a 280% increase.
- Bitcoin ETFs: Predicted SEC’s rejection of Bitcoin ETFs, which has been accurate so far.
- Bitcoin Volatility: Anticipated an average volatility below 40%, currently averaging at 43% compared to a 5-year average of 63%.
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