TA: Why Bitcoin Price Is At Risk of A Drop Below $45,000

Bitcoin price failed to settle above the $50,000 pivot zone against the US Dollar. BTC is now showing bearish signs and it seems like it could even decline below the $45,000 support.

• Bitcoin started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the $51,500 and $52,000 resistance levels.
• The price is now trading well below the $50,000 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $49,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair could move down further towards $45,000 or even $42,000 if it remains in the red zone.

Bitcoin Price is Showing Bearish Signs

After a clear break above the $50,000 level, bitcoin recovered further above $51,000. However, BTC faced a strong selling interest near the $52,000 level (as discussed in the last two analysis).

The price also topped near the 100 hourly simple moving average at $52,000. There was a fresh bearish wave below the $50,000 support zone. The bears gained strength, resulting in a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $49,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

The pair even broke the $47,000 support and traded as low as $46,228. It is currently consolidating losses near the $47,000 level. An initial resistance on the upside is near the $47,500 level. The first major resistance is near the $49,150 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $52,088 high to $46,228 low.

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The main resistance is now forming near the $50,700 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $52,088 high to $46,228 low.

A close above the $50,000 level and a follow up move above the $50,700 level may possibly open the doors for a break of the $52,000 resistance zone.

More Losses in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to continue higher above the $49,500 and $50,000 resistance levels, there could be more losses. An initial support on the downside is near the $46,200 level.

The first major support is still near the $45,000 zone. If there is a clear break below the $45,000 support, the price could dive towards the $42,000 support zone.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is well below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $46,200, followed by $45,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $49,150, $50,000 and $50,700.

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