Local elections: Labour warned over underestimating Boris – Tories to make ‘surprise wins’

Sir John Curtice in brutal review of Boris Johnson's party

We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. You can unsubscribe at any time. More info

The Conservatives could make some surprising gains in this week’s local elections, according to the Smarkets betting exchange. While Labour have been backed to win some key council seats, Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Tories shouldn’t be underestimated, said Smarket’s Head of Political Markets, Matthew Shaddick.

He told Express.co.uk: “The prices on Smarkets suggest a pretty good night for Keir Starmer on Thursday.

“However, it may be that the number of councils Labour manages to gain outright will be fairly modest: the odds imply a net swing from the Tories of eight in total.

“A lot of attention will be on the elections in London where every seat is being contested.

“Labour look to have decent chances in Barnet and Wandsworth, with an outside chance of taking control of Westminster council as well.

“The Tories might just pull off a couple of surprise wins though; look out for results in Sutton and Croydon.”

Boris Johnson’s party made significant gains across England during the 2021 local elections.

Last year, the Tories managed to add an extra 235 councillors and 13 new councils under their control.

But the picture for this Thursday is markedly different for both parties.

Labour could take some historic councils from the Tories, which would help the opposition on its path to win the next general election. Labour are on course to have a 95 percent chance of winning the national equivalent vote share, according to the latest odds on the Smarkets betting exchange.

Labour is favoured to take control of its long-term target Barnet (60 percent chance) and Wandsworth (72 percent) in London, the bookies predicted.

Wandsworth has been under Conservative control for 44 years, meaning a switch could be particularly historic for both major parties.

Tory councillors in the area are campaigning as “local Conservatives” in an effort to escape the association with Boris Johnson.

DON’T MISS
Supermarket worker tells Boris to get ‘his head out of backside’ [INSIGHT]
For a better Britain I urge you – vote Conservative says BORIS JOHNSON [OPINION]
Tory MP slams Sir Keir Starmer for being a mere ‘Captain Hindsight’ [REPORT]

Labour are also favourites to win the mayoral races in South Yorkshire (98 percent), Croydon (71 percent), and Tower Hamlets (57 percent).

Hartlepool, where the Tories won a historic by-election in 2021, might have fallen out of love with the Conservatives, with Smarkets currently predicting a 75 percent chance the council will stay under no overall control instead of swinging to Mr Johnson’s party.

Wakefield, where disgraced MP Imran Ahmad Khan resigned after being convicted of sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy, was widely predicted to swing to the Tories on May 5 following a huge win for them in 2019, but is now expected to remain under Labour control.

Meanwhile, another survey has predicted the Tories could lose an astonishing 550 seats in the local elections, something that will send a severe message to the Prime Minister about the validity of his leadership.

An Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now poll found Labour stand to win 3,500 council seats, a gain of more than 800.

But the Tories will flounder, retaining just under 980, a fall of 548, according to the survey of 1,749 adults in the 201 councils contested on May 5.

Mr Johnson’s complete ignorance of calls for resignation after multiple scandals makes it unlikely he will step down in light of poor results on Thursday.

Mr Shaddick continued: “Our markets imply a 42 percent chance that Boris Johnson will be replaced as PM this year.

“If the Conservatives lose control in places like Somerset, Westminster, and Newcastle-under-Lyme, that number could be a lot higher come Friday.”

Source: Read Full Article