To dissuade Putin on Ukraine, West must deny him certainty

Brussels: Handshakes. Family photos. Press conferences. Condemnations, warnings and demands. Sooner or later NATO might have to actually do something.

The emergency gabfest of world leaders in Brussels to deal with the worst humanitarian crisis in Europe since World War II took a month of bombs and missiles blasting homes, schools, hospitals and killing children to be organised.

A French soldier from the 7th Mountain Battalion wears a NATO badge at Amari air base, Estonia.Credit:AP

It is little wonder the nation’s courageous President Volodymyr Zelensky is growing impatient.

Yes, Russia’s savage and brutal invasion of its sovereign neighbour has galvanised the West and made NATO relevant again. It wasn’t long ago French President Emmanuel Macron declared we were experiencing “the brain death of NATO.”

And while European nations, as well as the United States, Japan and Australia, have implemented a crippling sanctions regime on Moscow it is hard to see how and when the killing and horror will stop.

With US and British intelligence warning that Putin is threatening to use nuclear or chemical weapons on Ukrainians, leaders declared in a joint statement that if Russia was to use a biological weapon, it would result in “severe consequences”.

Crew members stand on deck of the Royal Canadian Navy ship HMCS Halifax departs Halifax, Nova Scotia, in support of NATO’s deterrence measures in eastern Europe.Credit:AP

But almost in the same breath a “Western official” (you can almost bet it was an American) was telling journalists that it was “highly unlikely” that NATO would intervene militarily.

“Every leader agrees that we’ve got to stop the killing,” they said in various media reports.

And most believe that NATO entering the conflict directly would only escalate it and increase the suffering.

The West talks tough at Putin, but – despite efforts to hide the truth he has been deeply wounded politically at home for sending thousands of young Russians to their early graves – he knows he can continue to push the boundaries to help salvage his efforts.

This very point has triggered frustration behind the scenes with Europe governments, who blame United States President Joe Biden for the hesitance of NATO to threaten a fight which would keep Moscow guessing.

Instead, he and others reel off a long list of things they are ruling out.

Putin may have underestimated the Ukrainian population’s capacity to fight and the West’s stomach for hardline economic sanctions, but he appears to be correct in his prediction that the US is gun-shy after two decades of military misery in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

A cloud of smoke rises after an explosion in Lviv, western Ukraine.Credit:AP

On Wednesday, the Washington Post reported that European diplomats had raised concerns about the US handling of the public messaging.

François Heisbourg, from the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a past adviser to the French defence ministry told the newspaper while the crisis has been well-managed and the diplomacy has been “superb”, the Americans have been “shooting off their mouth about what they won’t do”.

And former Republican presidential candidate, Senator Mitt Romney echoed that criticism.

“It’s better for [Russians] to wonder what we’re going to do rather than telling them what we’re going to do, exactly. Generally, strategic ambiguity is the best way,” he said.

The whole of Asia enjoys a level of strategic ambiguity because there is no NATO.

The US never says if it would ever defend Taiwan or not, and that has served the interests of Taiwan well, so why doesn’t it have the same policy in Europe?

So while the pledge of more lethal equipment is good as is the increased posturing of NATO troops, what is the West’s next play if diplomacy fails to bring peace?

Zelensky understands that as NATO and the European Union put on a strong show of unity, things are cracking behind the scenes.

Despite the public rhetoric, some don’t support enforcing more hardline sanctions and others are dead against an abrupt end to the use of Russian oil and gas.

He nodded to this in his address to Brussels when he said NATO nations were splitting. “I sincerely wish you that we are wrong in our assessments and in our doubts,” he said. “I sincerely wish that you actually have a very strong alliance. Because if we are wrong, the world is safe. But if we are at least one percent right, I ask you to reconsider your attitude. And really take care of security, security in Europe and, consequently, in the world.”

The world’s most powerful leaders have made it clear they have no appetite for war. So, if Putin doesn’t relent, where does that leave Ukraine? Prayers, thoughts and ultimatums won’t do the job.

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