Fox News Poll: Gibbons and Mandel lead Ohio GOP Senate primary

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Businessman Mike Gibbons and former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel lead the pack among Ohio Republican primary voters in the race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Rob Portman. 

Gibbons (22%) and Mandel (20%) each receive about one-fifth of the vote in a Fox News survey of Ohio voters who plan to participate in the May 3 GOP primary.  The next tier includes author J.D. Vance (11%), former Ohio GOP chair Jane Timken (9%), and Ohio State Sen. Matt Dolan (7%). 

The race is unsettled.  One-quarter of voters (24%) are undecided — and about two-thirds of Gibbons’ (62%), Mandel’s (64%), and Vance’s (66%) supporters say they may change their mind.

Overall, the economy is the priority in voters’ decision.  For 56%, issues such as inflation, spending, and taxes will be extremely important, while 49% say the same about immigration and border security.  Another 35% call social issues like abortion, school curriculum, and transgender issues extremely important to their vote choice, and 29% give that priority to COVID-19 policies.

Gibbons and Mandel are the top candidates across the four issue areas.

Portman endorsed Timken, while Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is backing Gibbons, and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley put his support behind Vance. 

Former President Trump has yet to endorse in the race.  He won Ohio by eight points in both 2016 and 2020. 

Portman is popular with the base, as 55% of Ohio GOP primary voters have a positive view of him, including 19% who feel “strongly” favorable.

Still, he is less popular than Gov. Mike DeWine (63% favorable-34% unfavorable) and Trump (78% favorable-21% unfavorable).  In fact, 58% have a “strongly” favorable view of Trump, while only 28% feel that way about DeWine and just 19% Portman. 

Voters with a favorable opinion of Trump are more likely than those who view him unfavorably to be interested in the primary (80% vs. 51%) and definitely plan to vote (80% vs. 57%). 

In the Senate primary, Gibbons and Mandel are doing strongest among voters who view Trump favorably.  Those with a negative opinion have not coalesced behind a candidate.

DeWine bests his gubernatorial primary challengers by a wide margin, taking 50% compared to 21% support for farmer/businessman Joe Blytsone and 18% for former Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci.

Sixty percent of DeWine supporters and 62% of Blystone backers feel certain of their vote choice, compared to 45% of Renacci’s. 

CLICK HERE FOR TOPLINE AND CROSSTABS RESULTS 

In 2018, DeWine won the governorship by three percentage points.  

“Trump remains remarkably popular, and his signature issues resonate among Ohio Republicans,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News survey with Democratic partner Chris Anderson. “But there are some other GOP heavyweights in Ohio that are either running or endorsing in these races — it’s complicated.”

Conducted March 2-6, 2022 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes telephone interviews (landline and cellphone) with live interviewers among 918 Ohio Republican primary voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.  Randomly selected from a statewide voter file of registered Ohio voters, respondents were screened to identify potential participants in the Republican primary elections.

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