Labour vs Conservative: Sir Keir hopes dashed as pollster says Boris to avoid ‘bloodbath’

Parties to 'focus on local elections' before partygate says expert

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Sir Keir Starmer hopes to capitalise on Boris Johnson’s recent political failings come May 5, as Labour attempts to defend councils in local elections. The ballot marks the first opportunity many Britons will have to offer their judgement on the Prime Minister’s part in partygate – which saw him have to pay a Fixed Penalty Notice – and the cost of living crisis. While Labour supporters have claimed the win will come easy for Sir Keir, pollsters and those within his own party believe the elections won’t prove as transformative as previously hoped.

The latest national polls for the two leading parties show that Labour has sustained its decisive polling lead following partygate in late 2021.

The party has settled at around 40 to 41 points on average, six to seven points higher than the Conservatives’ 34.

Most onlookers would expect that to translate to a clutch of council gains for Labour on May 5 and shake the ground around Mr Johnson.

The distance between the two parties has led to suggestions that the Conservatives could forfeit up to 750 seats.

But polling guru Sir John Curtice has claimed the results won’t provide the “bloodbath” predicted.

Writing for Politics Home, he said that the seven-point lead would not translate to seven-point gains.

He wrote the lead would produce “no more than a three to four-point swing”, leaving Labour with gains, but not to the earth-shattering extent for which some are hoping.

He added that of the councils being contested this year, most are already in Labour control, and they will likely only gain one or two.

In London, where Labour holds 21 of 32 boroughs, the party is only likely to gain one or two.

Polling has shown that Tory-controlled Wandsworth and Barnet are teetering on the brink and could transfer to Labour next month.

Outside the capital, Conservatives control a slim minority of councils with 39, while Labour has 41.

The existing Labour majority may mean that, ultimately, the party cannot inflict the profound damage on Mr Johnson that it hopes.

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Sir John targeted Southampton and Newcastle-under-Lyme as potential Conservative forfeits, again modest gains for Sir Keir.

He is not unaware of this, according to recent reports, as Labour frontbenchers have raised the matter with him.

The shadow cabinet has warned that Labour is on “thin ice” approaching May 5, suggesting the party could still lose seats and branding predictions of 750 Conservative losses “ludicrous”.

According to The Guardian, shadow levelling up secretary Lisa Nandy told Sir Keir that the party should focus on the cost of living crisis over partygate to win seats.

Focussing on that issue could tip the scales, as polls have shown the British public is growing frustrated with the Conservatives on key issues.

A YouGov poll from earlier this month found that Labour is steadily catching up to the Tories on economic performance – a key election decider – as both parties claimed 27 points from people asked which party would better manage the economy.

And a poll from Redfield and Wilton on April 20 found that 36 percent of Britons identify Labour as the party of low taxes.

Finally, a YouGov poll commissioned by The Times on April 16 found that two thirds (63 percent) of Britons would want the Prime Minister to resign if he receives another partygate fine.

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