Tory headache as Labour complete 17% polling swing in just one year – election forecasts

Brexit impasse could break with Boris Johnson resignation

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During the past year a number of scandals have blighted the popularity of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party. Investigations into Government lockdown parties and accusations of Tory sleaze have helped to drive support for its rivals. Now, it’s been revealed just how much of a polling swing has taken place, between the Tories and Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

Exactly a year ago the Tories were in a dominant polling position, and held a 10 point advantage over Labour – its nearest rivals.

Mr Johnson’s party was backed by 43 percent of the public, with Labour lagging behind on 33 percent, according to Politico’s Poll of Polls.

At the same point in time, every other major party could only score seven percent or lower.

But fast forward 12 months and a very different picture now exists across the British political landscape.

As of June 9, 2022, Labour is forecasted to be the most popular party in the UK, holding a share of 40 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, popularity for the Tories has slumped dramatically, standing at 33 percent.

The swing in vote share represents 17 percentage points, with Labour taking the polling lead in December 2, 2021.

The greatest difference between the two parties’ vote shares came in the middle of January, when Labour held a score of 41 percent and the Conservatives 32 percent.

Conversely, the Liberal Democrats have also gained ground at the expense of Mr Johnson’s party.

A year ago today, it could only muster seven percent of the vote share. But support for the Lib Dems has since swelled to 12 percent.

The Green Party, Scottish National Party (SNP), Reform UK, UK Independence Party (UKIP) and Plaid Cymru have all maintained consistent polling levels.

Declining support for the Tories follows Mr Johnson’s own falling approval rating with the public, continues to nosedive.

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His most recent score has fallen by two percentage points, giving him an overall rating of 24 percent – correct as of June 2.

The number of people who think he’s doing “badly” in his job increased from 68 to 69 percent.

It now means that Mr Johnson is just a further two percentage points away from his lowest ever approval rating, with YouGov.

Back in January 2022, the incumbent PM registered an approval rating of 22 percent.

In the past 12 months, support for both Mr Johnson and the Tories has been affected by several key issues.

Before the end of 2021, the PM had to fight off allegations of sleaze within his party, after former MP Owen Patterson was found guilty of breaching lobbying rules.

The Government has also been heavily criticised, after two investigations revealed the extent of lockdown parties that took place at Downing Street.

Despite winning a vote of confidence in his leadership last week, Mr Johnson is still under intense pressure to resign as PM.

But he has refused to step down and instead urged MPs to “draw a line” under the saga, and questions about his leadership.

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