‘Decapitated’ Wagner split between two options as group can’t continue

Wagner Group issue statement after death of Yevgeny Prigozhin

The alleged death of three key members of Wagner Group leaves the mercenary troops split between two choices, an expert has noted.

A plane crash on Wednesday evening (August 23) is believed to have claimed the lives of 10 people – including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the paramilitary group, Dmitry Utkin, its founder, and Valery Chekalov, the logistics and security head of the mercenary troops.

While the deaths of these prominent Wagner members haven’t yet been officialised – and many have speculated Mr Prigozhin may have once again cheated death – the British Ministry of Defence said it is “highly likely” the former ally of Vladimir Putin and others on the plane remained killed in the crash.

As it emerged financier Mr Prigozhin, former GRU agent Mr Utkin and Mr Chekalov were named on the passenger list of the crashed private jet, the well-connected Russian Telegram channel VChK-OGPU commented: “Wagner has been decapitated.”

READ MORE: Prigozhin’s death was a violent end to a violent man, writes John Foreman

Dr Jenny Mathers, senior lecturer in international politics at Aberystwyth University, believes that if Mr Prigozhin and the other leaders of Wagner have truly died, the paramilitary group can’t carry on “in its present form”.

She told Express.co.uk: “Although the activities of Russian private military companies will probably continue – they are too valuable to the state to lose – it will be difficult for Wagner Group itself to carry on in its present form.

“These Russian private military companies are not truly private because they were created with the active support of the state and rely heavily on state resources – not just money but also weapons, equipment, training facilities, transportation, medical care and so on.”

As a consequence, having lost the Kremlin’s support as well as their heads, Wagner Group soldiers face two options.

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She continued: “[Troops] have been told what they need to do in order to regain the support of the Russian state: sign contracts with the Ministry of Defence and become regular soldiers.

“Otherwise they would have to find another backer who could fill the gap left by the Russian state, as well as new leaders and manage to hang onto their existing lucrative contracts with foreign governments or strike new deals in other countries.”

The prominent role of the Kremlin in Wagner’s creation and financing was uncovered in late July following an inquiry led by the UK Foreign Affairs Committee inquiry.

Days after Mr Prigozhin led a mutiny against Russia’s military leadership and their handling of the war in Ukraine, Putin had also admitted for the first time Wagner had been given from May 2022 to May 2023 some 86.262bn roubles (£793,000) for salaries and bonuses, funds coming directly from the defence ministry and state budget.

In its update dated August 25, the British Ministry of Defence also suggested change would be inevitable within Wagner as a result of the death of Mr Prigozhin.

The analysis read: “The demise of Prigozhin would almost certainly have a deeply destabilising effect on the Wagner Group. His personal attributes of hyper-activity, exceptional audacity, a drive for results and extreme brutality permeated Wagner and are unlikely to be matched by any successor.” The alleged deaths of Mr Utkin and Mr Chekalov, the report added, are to leave a “leadership vacuum”.

While the future of Wagner remains uncertain, another mercenary group is emerging as its most likely successor.

Controlled by the Russian military intelligence, Redut was created to protect the factories of Russian oligarch Gennady Timchenko, according to written evidence submitted to the Foreign Affairs Committee inquiry last month.

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