Liberal leadership rumblings resurface as Coalition closes gap on Labor

Morrison government ministers have reignited a push to replace state Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien as Victorian Liberal MPs again consider plans for a spill just three months after a failed coup attempt.

Liberal MPs, both state and federal, and senior party figures discussed a plan to execute a spill at the party’s meeting of MPs next week, but this was abandoned due to uncertainty caused by indoor density limits and an inability by anti-O’Brien camps to unite on an agreed strategy.

Michael O’Brien gets his COVID vaccine in Melbourne this month.Credit:Jason South

A state opposition frontbencher and a senior Liberal Party figure both told The Age a plot to again challenge Mr O’Brien on June 22, the last parliamentary party meeting before the winter break, had been abandoned because warring factions were unable to secure the numbers for a coup.

The frontbencher, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential plans, said density requirements and the potential for the meeting to be held virtually fostered indecision.

The party room of 31 is still loosely divided into three groups: O’Brien backers, those keen for former leader Matthew Guy to return and others who support a leadership change but are not sold on Mr O’Brien or Mr Guy. The disunity among those who oppose Mr O’Brien allowed him to survive a challenge in March when nine rebels voted for a motion to spill the leadership.

The Age has confirmed several state MPs have received calls over the past week from supporters of Mr Guy agitating for change. Mr Guy served as opposition leader from 2014 to 2018 but was replaced by Mr O’Brien following a crushing election defeat.

Mr Guy has consistently said he is not keen on returning to the leadership but federal ministers and party powerbrokers are pushing for him to return. The group who back Mr Guy are factional enemies of Mr O’Brien and party president Robert Clark.

The Age can reveal at least five Victorian federal MPs, including members of Scott Morrison’s cabinet, are now actively lobbying their state colleagues to return to Mr Guy ahead of the next state election, scheduled for November 2022.

One Victorian minister, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told The Age the latest lockdown had “crystallised the problems”.

"If this is what Michael will be like during an election, we have a huge problem," the Liberal minister said.

The Canberra intervention, coupled with findings contained in a new survey by Resolve Political Monitor, which shows the major parties neck and neck in Victoria, could fuel leadership tensions due to Premier Daniel Andrews’ popularity when weighed against Mr O’Brien. Conversely, opposition leaders around the country have trailed incumbents during the pandemic and the tight poll margin could embolden Mr O’Brien’s strategy and quieten detractors.

The survey also revealed the Coalition has been unable to win back voters who have abandoned Labor since 2018, with the Coalition improving its primary vote by 1 per cent under Mr O’Brien’s watch.

The latest leadership push comes after months of relative quiet and was triggered by concerns Mr O’Brien failed to adequately capitalise on the latest lockdown. Liberals also fear the implications of a looming electoral redistribution, where up to three MPs might have their seats abolished.

Some Liberals were also angered by the Opposition Leader’s recent swipe at backbencher Beverley MacArthur, who made controversial comments encouraging the Morrison government to not provide financial assistance to Victorians during this month’s lockdown.

Mr O’Brien said the comments proved why the first-term MP was unworthy of a frontbench position, which was perceived as an unusually harsh criticism of a serving MP that some Liberals deemed hypocritical because Mr O’Brien has never reprimanded backbencher Bernie Finn after several contentious remarks.

Several MPs told The Age Mr O’Brien had not made necessary changes to his leadership style since the last spill motion and had not made an effort to create unity. However, backers of Mr O’Brien said he had given additional media duties to some of his colleagues, a sign of his willingness to foster teamwork.

Key to any leadership challenge will be the group that supported Gembrook MP Brad Battin in the March challenge. The Battin group – which includes Ryan Smith, Richard Riordan and Nick Wakeling – supports a spill motion but is reluctant to pledge guaranteed support to Mr Guy.

Instead, the group would prefer a contest between two or more candidates in the event a spill motion – effectively a vote of no confidence in Mr O’Brien — succeeded.

One Battin supporter said they would consider voting for Mr Guy, whose supporters include Tim Smith, Neale Burgess, James Newbury and Craig Ondarchie, in the event of a spill.

Supporters of Mr O’Brien have dismissed the latest leadership speculation and said the party room was too focused on the state’s coronavirus restrictions for leadership speculation to be given credence.

“I don’t believe the party room is open to this conversation again. I think this lockdown has caused permanent damage to Labor and something has shifted out there among Victorians,” one said.

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