Tory fears over 'Poll Tax 2.0' tax raid hammering families

Tory alarm over ‘Poll Tax 2.0’ tax raid as government impact assessment admits it could hammer families and jobs

• Boris Johnson announced dramatic tax raid for NHS and social care last week
• The PM quelled immediate Tory revolt but rebels claim unrest is still mounting
• Government impact assessment said the policy could hammer families and jobs  

Boris Johnson is facing Tory alarm over his ‘Poll Tax 2.0’ tax raid today after a government impact assessment admitted it could hammer families and jobs.

The PM has been hit with another wave  of concerns about the dramatic £12billion-a-year national insurance hike, intended to bail out the NHS and revolutionise social care.

Conservatives have warned it could cost Mr Johnson the next election after a poll showed an immediate slump in support, with fears it is a ‘gift’ to Labour in Red Wall seats.

One MP told the Sunday Telegraph they were already receiving mail from constituents comparing the move to Margaret Thatcher’s disastrous attempt to reform local rates.  

An impact assessment produced by HM Revenue & Customs for the Treasury last week fuelled the nerves. 

Boris Johnson (pictured last week) has been hit with another wave of concerns about the dramatic £12billion-a-year national insurance hike, intended to bail out the NHS and revolutionise social care

Conservatives have warned it could cost Mr Johnson the next election after a poll showed an immediate slump in support

‘There may be an impact on family formation, stability or breakdown as individuals, who are currently just about managing financially, will see their disposable income reduce,’ it said. 

It added that the would be a ‘significant’ impact on the behaviour of companies and individuals.

‘The measure is anticipated to have a significant macroeconomic impact, with consequences including but not limited to for earnings, inflation and company profits,’ the assessment said.

‘Behavioural effects are likely to be large, and these will include decisions around whether to incorporate or not, and business decisions around wage bills and recruitment.’

Former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith is spearheading mounting protests at the ‘chaotic’ tax hike plan.

Tory MPs in seats seized from Labour in the North and Midlands cautioned it could spell ‘doom’ for the party.

One said privately: ‘This is a Red Wall tax in all but name and it’s a gift to Labour.’

Research from the TaxPayers’ Alliance has suggested the new NI levy will disproportionately affect workers in the North and Midlands, as well as working people compared to the retired.

Rebels now claim there are as many as 100 Tory MPs in a so-called ‘awkward squad’ organising against the plans. 

They claimed revolts in further votes on the plans this week be far worse than last week’s capitulation, where just five Tories voted against.

Senior Tory MP Marcus Fysh told the Mail on Sunday: ‘Without much greater explanation and concessions, the Government faces a potentially much greater rebellion from the Tory benches this week.’

Branding the tax rise plans ‘ill-thought-out’, he added that the Tories abandoned their ‘hard-earned’ reputation as the party of low taxes ‘at our peril’. 

Rebels claim revolts in further votes on the plans this week be far worse than last week’s capitulation, where just five Tories voted against

Leaders of the group are set to meet Chancellor Rishi Sunak tomorrow ahead of further votes on the NI proposals on Tuesday in a debate on the Health and Social Care Levy Bill.

In the hugely controversial move last week, the Prime Minister ordered Tory MPs to vote though a 1.25 per cent rise in NI from next April, initially to raise £36billion in three years mostly to combat Covid-related NHS waiting lists and then to fund radical reforms to help spare people having to sell their homes to fund social care. 

Mr Johnson justified the move by insisting his Government ‘will not duck the tough decisions needed to get NHS patients the treatment they need and to fix our broken social care system’.

But the NI rise – breaking a clear manifesto pledge in the 2019 election manifesto that delivered Mr Johnson an 80-strong majority in the Commons – has plunged his party into a bitter civil war and identity crisis. 

Writing in the MoS today, David Mellor – who served in Margaret Thatcher’s government – criticises Mr Johnson for committing a ‘fundamental breach’ of Conservative principles.

There were also complaints that last week’s vote was only won because Tory whips ‘bullied’ new MPs into believing the measure amounted to a ‘vote of confidence’ in Mr Johnson and the Government could fall if it was defeated.

And there was anger over claims No 10 deliberately fuelled rumours of a reshuffle to deter rebels hopeful of a ministerial job or promotion.

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